The Great Game in Bangladesh

 

Bangladesh, our neighbour in the East, was born out of much violence and bloodshed in December 1971. Political cum civil unrest, including violence was seen when Lord Curzon partitioned Bengal on communal lines in 1905. Muslim League sponsored Direct Action Day in August 1946 saw terrible violence in Kolkata - the blame for massacre of thousands of Hindus in Kolkata is attributed to Huseyn Shaheed Suhrawardy, then Chief Minister of Bengal( he became PM of Pakistan in 1956-57). The 1947- 70 period continued to be one of unrest and dissatisfaction for East Bengal as the Bengali political class decried Punjabi-Pathan bias against Bengalis in all aspects of governance. East Bengal dared to reject Jinnah's Urdu Language only policy in 1948 itself, laying down the seeds of ultimate separation. Unfortunately, it appears, violence and unrest have been a part of the Bengali society for last 150 years! Even after it got its independence, politics in Bangladesh has been plagued by political violence. Between the first recorded uprising in August 1975 (against its founder Shiekh Music) and the 2009 Bangladesh Rifles revolt, Bangladesh has been through as many as 29 military coups. Gen Ziaur Rehman who served as the sixth president of Bangladesh (1977- 1981) is said to have survived 21 assassination attempts before being killed on May 30, 1981 by his own army men! Gen HM Ershad was another army man to rule Bangladesh (1982- 90). It is interesting to note that both generals floated their political outfits during the years of their power - Ziaur Rahman floated the BNP in 1978 and HM Ershad floated the Jatiya Party in 1986. After the death of Ziaur Rahman, his wife Khaleda Zia took control of the political party. She has served as Bangladesh PM twice 28 (1991-1996 and 2001-2006). Shiekh Mujib's daughter too carries the flag of Awami League since her return to Bangladesh in 1981. She was Leader of Opposition for 12 years (1991- 96, 2001-2008) and has served as PM of Bangladesh for over 20 yrs (1996-2001 and 2009-2024). It was on August 5, 2024 that she was dethroned as PM and put on a plane to India by the Bangladesh Army. Since then, she has been living in India even while she has been sentenced to death by a Bangladesh court (trial in absentia). What caused the sudden '2024 student revolution' in Bangladesh? For a couple of years prior to the 'uprising,' tension was simmering between Shiekh Hasina's Govt and the US Administration. During the 2023 G-20 Summit in Delhi, Modi Ji tried to help create some thaw between Shiekh Hasina and President Biden. However, given Shiekh Hasina's refusal to cede control of St Martin's Island as a base for US Forces, the US Deep State got her goat overthrown thru its dirty tricks Deptt (CIA and Donald Lu of State Deptt, a specialist in regime change!). A 17-member interim government, led by an 84-year-old Nobel laureate Dr Muhammad Yunus as its chief advisor, took charge in Bangladesh on 8 August, 2024, with US blessings. Contours of the 'student revolution' that helped depose Shiekh Hasina started emerging soon after with strong antiIndia sentiment running riot in Bangladesh! The Great Game: Since the inception of civilization, mankind has been seeing battles for supremacy, for control of territory, wealth, power, and influence to begin with. Be it the Mahabharat war in India or the Trojan Wars fought in ancient Greece, the Persian wars, conquests of Alexander the Macedonian, the Roman Civil wars - human history is full of narratives about kings and nobles attacking countries, seeking wealth and territory! Even after 20 odd centuries of wars, intrigues, deceptions and killings, the human lust for expansion of territory, power and influence has not diminished! End of World War II saw the decline of territorial colonization but also saw the emergence of Cold War between the West (led by the US) and Soviet Russia - each camp had its list of followers! Breakdown of the Soviet Union (1989-92) saw the short-lived existence of a unipolar world with USA as the Sole Superpower (1992-2020); emergence of China and Russia as alternative major powers has once again ignited the race for political influence and power between these powers, leading to intrigues, conspiracies and one upmanship games! In many ways, these moves and countermoves between powerful countries are reminiscent of what was defined in the nineteenth century as The Great Game by the British spy Captain Arthur Conolly (1807-1842). He participated in many reconnaissance missions into Central Asia and coined the term The Great Game to describe the struggle between the British Empire and the Russian Empire for domination over Central Asia. To counter the growing penetration of Russia into Central Asia, Conolly unsuccessfully tried to persuade the various khanates(kingdoms) there to put aside their differences and join forces with the British. In November 1841 he was captured and, along with another British officer, Lieutenant Colonel Charles Stoddart, was beheaded in Bukhara in June 1842. Pakistani born Swedish political commentator and author Dr Ishtiaq Ahmad confirms that partition of India by the British was always a part of the larger Great Game for the Indian subcontinent. Pakistan was designed to be a country to be controlled by the Western Powers (US & UK). Lord Mountbatten strongly urged Maharaja Hari Singh of J&K to join Pakistan during his personal visit to Kashmir (June 18-23, 1947). Having failed in that, the British conspired and got Gilgit Baltistan aligned to Pakistan thru Major William Brown of the British Army (Gilgit Scouts). Jinnah sent letters and personal emissaries to the US President Truman in 1947, offering his 'British trained' Army as a bulwark against the growing Soviet influence in Asia and, for controlling the Arab countries; a $ 2 Billion grant cum assistance was the price demanded for Pakistan's 'assistance to the West! Pakistan became a part of the US led military alliances soon - SEATO in 1954 and CENTO in 1955, opening floodgates of US funds and military support! Since then, Pakistani Army has ruled the country for over 4 decades (directly and indirectly), always with US support! 1971 proved to be a watershed year for the Indian subcontinent as under a cleverly crafted plan, Pakistan was dismembered; Bangladesh came into existence as a new country, with active Indian support! India had signed a 20-year Treaty of Peace, Friendship, and Cooperation with the Soviet Union in August 1971 that provided India crucial security assurances against potential U.S.-China-Pakistan intervention. It countered U.S.-China-Pakistan alignment and established the USSR as India's indispensable security guarantor, influencing Asian dynamics for decades. Over the last 5 decades (1971-2025), India aligned itself mostly with the Awami League, a political party founded by Shiekh Mujib-ur Rehman. The cooperation and friendship continued even after Shiekh Mujib was brutally murdered by elements of the Bangla Army in 1975. India helped his surviving daughter Shiekh Hasina by offering asylum for 6 years till she was able to return to Bangladesh in 1981.Shiekh Hasina has, since then, been at the forefront of Bangladesh politics - 12 years as Leader of Opposition (1991-96, 2001-2008) and as PM for over 20 yrs (1996-2001 and 2009-2024). There is a fundamental change in the policy of the new Bangladeshi regime - and they are deliberately being nasty to Delhi to provoke - 'Tyranny of the Weak', as William Somerset Maughm would have called it! The new 'political dispensation' started releasing not just the political opponents of Shiekh Hasina like Begum Khalida Zia but even terrorists like the LET-Al Qaida associate Jashimuddin Rahmani, who had plotted several attacks in India. The new dispensation removed ban on pro-Pakistan Jamaat-e-Islami, its student wing and 'all associated organizations'. Large scale violence was let loose against the political workers of Shiekh Hasina's political party, the Awami League! What hurt most was the violence and large-scale arson, looting and a lynching pogrom against Hindu minority of Bangladesh by Islamist goons. Social media was full of gruesome videos and horrifying details of targeted violence across Bangladesh - teachers and doctors forced to resign just because they were Hindu. Bangladesh invited Senior Pakistani Army personnel for closer defence cooperation. Likewise, it invited Türkiye, the self-styled leader of the Islamic world for closer ties. The current anti-India mood in Bangladesh is a setback to India's 'Look East' policy. No country wishes to have a prickly neighbour - India shares a 4156 km long border with Bangladesh, involving Assam, Tripura, Mizoram, Meghalaya, and West Bengal. Of critical and strategic importance is an area known as Siliguri Corridor, (Chicken's neck) where border is at its narrowest (20-22 km). This narrow stretch of land connects India and its north-eastern region containing the 7 north-eastern states and Sikkim! Siliguri corridor is India's only land connect with these eight states. Given its proximity to the Indo-China border, with Nepal, Bangladesh on either side, Siliguri Corridor has tremendous military importance for India. Already we have seen the designs of anti-India forces who wish to choke India at this point! We have seen people like Sharjeel Imam, one 30 of the faces behind the Shaheen Bagh protests in Delhi, giving a call for cutting off Assam and Northeast from the rest of India by agitating at the Chicken's neck area during the Anti-CAA protests. Bangladesh too has published maps of what they call Greater Bangladesh which include territories of India's North East provinces. It appears that Indian Govt has learnt some lessons after the two recent setbacks (Maldives and Bangladesh reversals). It is now adopting a Defensive Offence strategy (Doval Doctrine) or the Policy of Plausible Deniability - a far more aggressive and proactive policy than how things were handled till now. Indian intelligence agencies appear to be operating in various countries in an unprecedented mode - including what are known as Deep Cover Sources, promoting local resistance groups, Cyber disruption, and invisible infiltration into terror networks. Unknown Gunmen appear to be targeting anti-India operatives in countries like Pakistan, Canada, and Bangladesh. In last year odd, over 35 terrorists (including Khalistani) involved in anti-India activities were silently eliminated in Pakistan and Canada. A spate of deaths (>30) has been reported from Dhaka in last couple of months - mostly personnel involved with CIA, ISI, the Turkish intelligence. The US officer who died under mysterious circumstances on Aug 31, 2025, in Dhaka was a senior U.S. Army operative with the 1st Special Forces Command (Airborne). Col AK Raina, SM, a retired Indian Army expert on Unknown Gunmen theory has been explaining the changing role of Indian intelligence agencies on social media as well as thru his books on the subject! Dhaka today resembles Vienna, nicknamed the Spy Capital of Europe during the Cold War era. We have Global Powers like China, the US and Russia competing with the regional powers - India, Myanmar, Turkey, and Pakistan for influence! China has been cultivating Bangladesh for years. Bangladesh's position in the Bay of Bengal is vital for China's maritime strategy and BRI (Belt and Road initiative) objectives. It has massive infrastructure investments in Bangladesh's economy. US wants to be an active player because it wants a base in the Bay of Bengal (St Martin's Island?); Bangladesh is also important for its long-term objectives: a) containing the Chinese via control of Myanmar and b) creation of an independent Christian ZO State in India's North East on the lines of East Timor. Russia has, in recent years invested heavily in energy, trade, and military sectors -2400 MW Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, is Bangladesh's first nuclear power facility being constructed by Russia's state atomic energy corporation, Rosatom. Pakistan always had a strong lobby in Bangladesh -they were after all part of one country till 1971. ProIslam & Pro-Pakistan sentiment has always been alive in Bangladesh in the form of the pro-Islamist Jamat-e-Islami and the Bihari population that had migrated to East Pakistan in the aftermath of partition in 1947! The indoctrination by Islamist fundamentalist forces, with financial support from the gulf money started in 1970s itself! the HateIndia nidus has always been there - it went subterranean during the Awami League rule to a certain extent yet, as happens in competitive politics, each political party tries to outdo the other through symbolisms! It also appears that 55 years after it achieved independence with India acting as the midwife, people of Bangladesh are uncomfortable in acknowledging a certain amount of gratitude towards India. What is on the cards? Given the current geopolitical situation in South-East Asia, the entire Indian Subcontinent, including Afghanistan, appears to be on the boil. Pakistan is on the brink of implosion due to political uncertainty and economic bankruptcy. Baloch and Pashtun (TTP) insurgencies are adding fuel to the Army vs PTI standoff. Taliban Govt in Afghanistan is adopting a tough stance towards Pakistan; killing of Pak soldiers has become a daily routine in the restive KPK and Baluchistan provinces. India has taken the Bangladesh regime change as a setback and appears to be working on several options. It appears the Indian subcontinent is being prepared for a redrawing of political maps in not-so-distant future. Political and Military think-tank’s in India are talking of balkanization of both Pakistan as well as Bangladesh in the coming five years, maybe earlier. These include: Resurrecting Shiekh Hasina: Awami League has a strong base in Bangladesh. Shiekh Hasina is likely to return to Bangladesh with Indian help. This shall ensure India has a less prickly neighbour in the east! Expanding the Siliguri Corridor. Indian military is already talking of expanding the Siliguri Corridor to protect Indian interests. India has reinforced its infrastructure around the Siliguri Corridor, establishing new military garrisons, increasing patrols, and conducting largescale exercises for any proactive action. Trifurcation of Bangladesh: This is a longterm plan. It is proposed to carve out a Hindu Enclave (along the Siliguri Corridor, in Rangpur region), a Buddhist Enclave (along the Chittagong Hill Track Area bordering Tripura) and a Muslim Enclave in the rest of Bangladesh. The North Bangladesh Corridor (Rangpur Region) is an 80 km wide strip connecting the Rangpur division to the rest of Bangladesh, vulnerable to isolation from the mainland, if cut off. Assam CM Mr Hemanta Biswa Sarma has already spoken about Bangladesh's own two Chicken's Necks, one in North (Rangpur region) and the second along Tripura border in South. This shall put an end to the conspiracy to create a Christian Zo State, comprising areas of Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Mizoram, inhabited by the Kuki-Chin-Mizo people. Taking back segments of POJK: Internal dissatisfaction within POJK makes it a prime candidate for secession from Pakistan, of course, with India's 'moral and political' support! The Indian dilemma is whether to focus first on the Muzaffarabad - Rawlakot segment or, on the more strategic Gilgit Baltistan part. GB is less populated, has Shia population (against the Sunni majority in rest of POJK) and, is less radicalized. The world geopolitics is in flux! An erratic and whimsical Trump in the White House is behaving like the proverbial elephant in a China shop - his apparently 'mad tariff antics' are causing irreparable damage to global commerce and stability! India is positioning itself as a rising economic cum military power in a multi polar world and is likely to assert its independent position. How costly the anti-India stance shall prove to Bangladesh, only time shall tell!

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The views expressed in the Article above are Sanjeev Munshi   views and kashmiribhatta.in is not in any way responsible for the opinions expressed in the above article. The article belongs to its respective owner or owners and this site does not claim any right over it. Copyright Disclaimer under section 107 of the Copyright Act of 1976, allowance is made for "fair use" for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, education, and research. Fair use is a use permitted by copyright statute that might otherwise be infringing."

Courtesy:  Sanjeev Munshi   and Koshur Samachar- January-2026