R K Kaushik  

The challenges are grave for a minority government dependent on a coalition of disparate groups and a leader with no experience of governance. The new administration will be constrained by the worsening state of the economy.

Imran Khan is likely to be bound by the all-powerful Establishment.

IT is official now. Imran Khan is taking oath as Prime Minister of Pakistan on August 18 at Awan-e-Sadr (the President's House) in Islamabad. He has invited his former companions, nay playmates in cricket, Sunil Gavaskar, Kapil Dev and Navjot Sidhu for the oath-taking ceremony. His invitees also include his 1992 World Cup winning team-mates.

On August 6, the PTI (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf) Parliamentry Party chose Imran Khan as its leader, paving the way for his takeover as PM. It is the culmination of 22 years of struggle to reach the Everest of Pakistan's political mountain. The dapper cricket captain would soon take oath as leader of the Islamic country of more than 210 million people.

The winning of the Cricket World Cup in 1992, building of two cancer hospitals in Lahore and Peshawar and a prestigious university (NAMAL) in his home district of Mianwali in Punjab had made the people positive about him. Imran has been animatedly reminding the people of his numerous accomplishments ever

since he started his political voyage in April, 1996. Success in politics came slowly as luck played ducks and drakes with his vaulting political agenda.

Circumstances made the Establishment (Pakistan Army and ISI) groom him after the massive rally of Lahore on October 20, 2011. Imran also understood the mechanics of Pakistan's politics and decided to become an ally and protégé of the powerful Establishment whose humungous presence is all-pervasive in the country.

The result is there in the form of controversial and rigged elections results of July 25 in which the Establishment perspicaciously supported the PTI. During the elections, polling agents of PML(N) and other parties were extruded from the counting till the process got wrapped up. Requests for recounting were arbitrarily ignored and 1.6 million votes rejected. Even form 45 (which gives details of votes polled in favour of a candidate) was given only after the results were announced and that also with incomplete details.

The inference was palpable. The election process was configured to favour Imran and bring him to power.

The opposition parties did give a call for a boycott of the new parliament, but have now settled for using the forum of parliament to fight their battle. Derailing the system was an option because of strong reservations over the fairness of the poll, but the all-powerful Establishment discreetly forced them to be mellifluous.

Imran Khan and his government at the centre and in the provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab and with the Baluchistan Awami Party in Baluchistan would require more than rhetoric to move forward. The challenges are grave for a minority government dependent on a coalition of disparate groups and a leader with no experience of governance.

The new administration will be constrained by the worsening state of economy. Pakistan's current account deficit stands at $19 billion, over 5 per cent of the GDP, while its foreign exchange reserves have dwindled to $9.1 billion, enough to cover only two months of imports. This propping-up also has more than $2 billion given by China during the elections. It has, once again, carved out a situation where Pakistan has to rely on foreign loans to give it breathing space; and the solution seems to be the International Monetary Fund. The economy needs an increase and diversification of exports, while cutting down on unnecessary imports. Also, there are more than 10 million unemployed youth seeking jobs, with over 70 per cent population below poverty line. Law and order in Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is disturbing.

The civilian institutions are in a shambles. The bureaucracy is not performing and is just bidding time. The crisis of governance is more serious than it appears to be. The Establishment-backed judiciary and NAB (National Accountability Bureau) have brashly usurped the powers of the executive. They have paralysed the working of the federal and provincial governments, especially in Punjab and Sindh.

It is not clear how Imran and his party would deliver on the promises made during the elections. He says that he would gather a team of technocrats and experts to help the government, which may be a good idea, but these experts alone cannot deliver without an effective administration in place. If the horse is lame, the jockey can't help it win the race.

If not wisely tackled up to a point, then the administration becomes non-performing. As Italian philosopher Giorgio Agamben said, "Politics melts into the management of a permanent disorder." Politicians and bureaucracy just pass time without making seminal changes or in any way showing prudence in decisions and ameliorating the nagging problems faced by the populace at large for minimal survival. Whether Imran has the capability and sagacity to confront these problems is contentious.

In Pakistan's political history, after the murder of PM Liaquat Ali Khan on October 16, 1951, the only strong PM has been Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. When India won the Bangladesh war, the Establishment played second fiddle to Bhutto for around five years. Once they got a chance to pummel him, they encouraged a massive opposition agitation against him and ultimately removed him from power on July 5, 1977 in a bloodless coup, and hanged him on April 4, 1979 by a vexed and tendentious judicial trial.

Nawaz Sharif tried to pursue his own geo-political agenda: he resisted, though unsuccessfully, the sanctioning of a huge defence budget; tried to change the anti-India narrative; ventured to attempt an independent decision-making in foreign policy. But failed and got removed from power. Many bones of contention developed between him and the Establishment. Every decision was construed as intrigue. Ultimately, the Establishment used an obsequious judiciary and the Panama papers scandal to put Sharif in jail.

The Establishment is not likely to allow Imran much space in foreign, defence and nuclear policies. Imran would not prove to be a strong PM in such an environment. One does not see any strong leader emerging in the near future. In Pakistan, the de facto ruler — the Establishment — would have control over every major issue. Imran would not have a free hand to pursue his agenda. It would be, instead, the desires and orders of the Establishment which would chaperone Pakistan's journey in the years to come.

RK Kaushik was Secretary, Government of Punjab

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Courtesy: The Tribune: Aug 13, 2018,