Pranab Dhal Samanta 

With the Kartarpur initiative, the Pakistani deep state has come out of the shadows.  The India-Pakistan Kartarpur Corridor dynamic has many layers to it. But the most striking one is of the role of the Pakistani deep state, and its effort to leverage the fault lines of Punjab politics.

Let’s start with the foundation-laying event itself, where a major diplomatic embarrassment for India was averted just in time. Pakistan handed over a programme schedule that included only Congress’ Navjot Singh Sidhu among the Indian politicians in the list of speakers, ignoring the diplomatic protocol that Union minister Harsimrat Kaur Badal was leading the delegation.

Not just that, neither of the invited Indian ministers, Badal and Hardeep Singh Puri, was initially part of the list of dignitaries to be honoured with saropas (Sikh dress of honour) or gifts. India objected and officially took up the matter through diplomatic channels with Islamabad. It was only after the event flow was changed that Badal got to speak at the event.

In diplomacy, protocol has its own place. When broken, it’s assumed to have been done to convey a certain message. In this case, it was clearly intended to elevate Sidhu’s profile, even though he is a minister in Punjab while Badal is a Cabinet minister.

By now, we all know how Pakistani Army Chief Qamar Javed Bajwa revived the Kartarpur Corridor proposal with Sidhu at Prime Minister Imran Khan’s swearing-in ceremony in August.

Here again, diplomatic protocol provides us an interesting insight. Sidhu, it’s believed, was to be seated in the fourth row in the Aiwan-e-Sadr hall. But a seat in the first row was kept aside. This was later given to Sidhu as soon as he reached. In retrospect, the move allowed for an easier ‘chance meeting’ with General Bajwa, who had wanted to convey the suggestion for a Kartarpur Corridor.

The Kartarpur Sahib proposal has been on India’s agenda since 1999. But it never materialised, and remained a fixture in the long list of proposed confidence-building measures. So, what’s changed? Why now?

ISI Hallmark

The answer lies in the Pakistani deep state, in the corridors of its army, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), and non-state actors. This deep state is wellaligned to the official Pakistan State and its new prime minister Imran Khan. In fact, the balance is tilted in its favour, allowing it much greater leverage.

The Pakistani deep state has come to believe that the situation is ripe to open a ‘second front’ in Punjab. This thought took wings as the first three years of the Narendra Modi government unfolded, particularly in the Kashmir Valley.

By now, this lot in Pakistan has come to the conclusion that Kashmir is on boil and the more high-handed the approach from New Delhi, the greater the public dissatisfaction. And while that happens, what better to reignite the Khalistan embers. Which explains the ‘why now’ question. The 550th anniversary of Guru Nanak is a good moment to mobilise support from within the Sikh community.

What’s worrying from an Indian standpoint is the growing clamour around the Khalistan project, mixed up with a bizarre demand for a Sikh referendum in 2020. All this is finding space and voice in posters and rallies across gurdwaras in Pakistan like Panja Sahib and Nankana Sahib, besides support in fringe Sikh groups in the US, Europe and Canada.

In many ways, all of this is a throwback to the 1980s when militancy in Punjab and the Valley reached its peak. But times have changed, thereby making persuasions of the ‘Khalistan cause’ bear a greater passion within the Pakistani deep state than for real.

Yet, the political fault lines need to be watched. Somewhere Pakistan’s message through this din appears to be that it has a special place for the Sikhs in India and Pakistan à la for Kashmir’s Muslims.

On that score, India showed up, as it should have, at Kartarpur Sahib. GoI made a distinction between respecting the Sikh faith and the probable machinations of the Pakistani government and army. It confined political representation at the event to those who both practise the faith and represent the community, and did not shy away from giving strong statements when needed.

In short, GoI, for now, read the googly correctly and played it with a straight bat. However, it needs to recognise that the pitch is changing rather fast. Unlike the first few years of PM Modi, when India had the element of surprise, the tack has changed with Imran Khan ensconced in Islamabad.

The Pakistani deep state has far more latitude to both dictate and act, which puts the onus of response on India. This, added with the uncertain economic situation in Pakistan, leaves the deep state actors as the only powerful and organised entities there.

No Longer Borderline

A whole new dynamic has begun with the Kartarpur initiative. One, where the semblance of the role of the State, too, has been dispensed with in Pakistan, and the deep state has found strength to come out of the shadows. It’s time for India to reassess internally, reduce its vulnerabilities and pre-empt attempts to exploit religious fault lines.

Regardless of which party comes to power at the Centre in 2019, the time for unravelling old policies is over. New Delhi must get its act right in disturbed border states, be it Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab or Assam. Otherwise, the counter-narrative can be simply both devastating and destructive.

pranabdhal.samanta@timesgroup.com

DISCLAIMER:

The views expressed in the Article above are Pranab Dhal Samanta’s personal views and kashmiribhatta.in is not responsible for the opinions expressed in the above article.

Courtesy: Economic Times:  4th Dec, 2018